Against the gods : the remarkable story of risk by
A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller "Ambitious and readable . . . an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as true humanists helping to release mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." --The New York Times "An extraordinarily entertaining and informative book." --The Wall Street Journal "A lively panoramic book . . . Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it." --Business Week "Deserves to be, and surely will be, widely read." --The Economist "[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world." --Worth "No one else could have written a book of such central importance with so much charm and excitement." --Robert Heilbroner author, The Worldly Philosophers "With his wonderful knowledge of the history and current manifestations of risk, Peter Bernstein brings us Against the Gods. Nothing like it will come out of the financial world this year or ever. I speak carefully: no one should miss it." --John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today. "An extremely readable history of risk." --Barron's "Fascinating . . . this challenging volume will help you understand the uncertainties that every investor must face." --Money "A singular achievement." --Times Literary Supplement "There's a growing market for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein would mingle well in their company." --The Australian
The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis : Reasoning about Uncertainty by
Thisbook describes argumentative tools and strategies that can be used to guidepolicy decisions under conditions of great uncertainty. Contributing authorsexplore methods from philosophical analysis and in particular argumentationanalysis, showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about policyissues involving great uncertainty. The first part of the work exploreshow to deal in a systematic way with decision-making when there may be pluralperspectives on the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of whatwe do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for prioritizingamong uncertain dangers, for determining how decisions should be framed, forchoosing a suitable time frame for a decision, and for systematically choosingamong different decision options. Case studies are presented in thesecond part of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas ofclimate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology, nuclear waste, andfinancial markets. In one example, argumentation analysis is applied toproposals to solve the climate problem with various technological manipulationsof the natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflectiveaerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough investigation of such aproposal, doubt remains as to whether all the potential risks have beenidentified. In such discussions, conventional risk analysis does not have muchto contribute since it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereasthe argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to systematizediscussions.
The Black Swan: Second Edition by
The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility." A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty : From Theory to Practice by
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Doubt is their product : how industry's assault on science threatens your health by
"Doubt is our product," a cigarette executive once observed, "since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy." In this eye-opening expose, David Michaels reveals how the tobacco industry's duplicitous tactics spawned a multimillion dollar industry that is dismantling public health safeguards. Product defense consultants, he argues, have increasingly skewed the scientific literature, manufactured and magnified scientific uncertainty, and influenced policy decisions to the advantage of polluters and the manufacturers of dangerous products. To keep the public confused about the hazards posed by global warming, second-hand smoke, asbestos, lead, plastics, and many other toxic materials, industry executives have hired unscrupulous scientists and lobbyists to dispute scientific evidence about health risks. In doing so, they have not only delayed action on specific hazards, but they have constructed barriers to make it harder for lawmakers, government agencies, and courts to respond to future threats. The Orwellian strategy of dismissing research conducted by the scientific community as "junk science" and elevating science conducted by product defense specialists to "sound science" status also creates confusion about the very nature of scientific inquiry and undermines the public's confidence in science's ability to address public health and environmental concerns Such reckless practices have long existed, but Michaels argues that the Bush administration deepened the dysfunction by virtually handing over regulatory agencies to the very corporate powers whose products and behavior they are charged with overseeing. In Doubt Is Their Product Michaels proves, beyond a doubt, that our regulatory system has been broken. He offers concrete, workable suggestions for how it can be restored by taking the politics out of science and ensuring that concern for public safety, rather than private profits, guides our regulatory policy. Named one of the best Sci-Tech books of 2008 by Library Journal!
Ignorance : how it drives science by
Knowledge is a big subject, says Stuart Firestein, but ignorance is a bigger one. And it is ignorance - not knowledge - that is the true engine of science.Most of us have a false impression of science as a surefire, deliberate, step-by-step method for finding things out and getting things done. In fact, says Firestein, more often than not, science is like looking for a black cat in a dark room, and there may not be a cat in the room. The process ismore hit-or-miss than you might imagine, with much stumbling and groping after phantoms. But it is exactly this "not knowing," this puzzling over thorny questions or inexplicable data, that gets researchers into the lab early and keeps them there late, the thing that propels them, the very drivingforce of science. Firestein shows how scientists use ignorance to program their work, to identify what should be done, what the next steps are, and where they should concentrate their energies. And he includes a catalog of how scientists use ignorance, consciously or unconsciously - a remarkablerange of approaches that includes looking for connections to other research, revisiting apparently settled questions, using small questions to get at big ones, and tackling a problem simply out of curiosity.The book concludes with four case histories - in cognitive psychology, theoretical physics, astronomy, and neuroscience - that provide a feel for the nuts and bolts of ignorance, the day-to-day battle that goes on in scientific laboratories and in scientific minds with questions that range from thequotidian to the profound. Turning the conventional idea about science on its head, Ignorance opens a new window on the true nature of research. It is a must-read for anyone curious about science.
Laws of fear : beyond the precautionary principle by
What is the relationship between fear, danger, and the law? Cass Sunstein attacks the increasingly influential Precautionary Principle - the idea that regulators should take steps to protect against potential harms, even if causal chains are uncertain and even if we do not know that harms are likely to come to fruition. Focusing on such problems as global warming, terrorism, DDT, and genetic engineering, Professor Sunstein argues that the Precautionary Principle is incoherent. Risks exist on all sides of social situations, and precautionary steps create dangers of their own. Diverse cultures focus on very different risks, often because social influences and peer pressures accentuate some fears and reduce others. Instead of adopting the Precautionary Principle, Professor Sunstein argues for three steps: a narrow Anti-Catastrophe Principle, designed for the most serious risks; close attention to costs and benefits; and an approach called 'libertarian paternalism', designed to respect freedom of choice while also moving people in directions that will make their lives go better. He also shows how free societies can protect liberty amidst fears about terrorism and national security. Laws of Fear represents a major statement from one of the most influential political and legal theorists writing today.
Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming by
The troubling story of how a cadre of influential scientists have clouded public understanding of scientific facts to advance a political and economic agenda.
The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World by
"On October 16, 1987 meteorologists predicted a nice, breezy day in the south of England. Instead, the countryside was battered by the worst storm to hit the country in over 300 years. Twenty-two people were killed and damages totaled more than 3.3 million dollars. In the aftermath, scientists asked themselves: why was the forecast wrong? What could have been done to predict this? Meteorologist Tim Palmer discovered the answer: it comes down to embracing chaos. In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer tells the story of how scientists learned to accurately predict the weather, and how we can use those insights to predict everything else, from the workings of the brain and how it creates consciousness to how quantum mechanics enables everything we see to emerge from just four basic particles. The key is embracing uncertainty. In the case of the Great Storm of 1987, Palmer found, forecasters were too obsessed with finding an on-off switch in their models: either it would be stormy or it wouldn't. Palmer led the charge to inject probabilistic forecasting into weather models, a massive breakthrough that has revolutionized our ability not only to know whether to bring an umbrella, but to prevent life-threatening catastrophes. But weather isn't the only thing that we use deterministic models to predict. Our understanding of quantum physics, climate change, and the economy could all be revolutionized by acknowledging uncertainty, Palmer argues, and those revolutions are long overdue. A fascinating firsthand account of the science of uncertainty, The Primacy of Doubt is for anyone seeking to better understand not just what scientists do and don't understand about the universe. The Primacy of Doubt proves one thing for certain: the key to knowing is to admit when you don't know"--Publisher's description.
Routledge International Handbook of Ignorance Studies by
Once treated as the absence of knowledge, ignorance today has become a highly influential topic in its own right, commanding growing attention across the natural and social sciences where a wide range of scholars have begun to explore the social life and political issues involved in the distribution and strategic use of not knowing. The field is growing fast and this handbook reflects this interdisciplinary field of study by drawing contributions from economics, sociology, history, philosophy, cultural studies, anthropology, feminist studies, and related fields in order to serve as a seminal guide to the political, legal and social uses of ignorance in social and political life. Chapter 33 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license available here: https://tandfbis.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/rt-files/docs/Open+Access+Chapters/9780415718967_oachapter33.pdf
Uncertainty and risk : multidisciplinary perspectives by
This is a major, and deeply thoughtful, contribution to understanding uncertainty and risk. Our world and its unprecedented challenges need such ways of thinking! Much more than a set of contributions from different disciplines, this book leads you to explore your own way of perceiving your own area of work.
The Uncertainty Effect : How to Survive and Thrive Through the Unexpected by
In an age of pandemic and economic precarity, how can we learn to embrace uncertainty in our workplaces, schools and businesses? And how can better understanding uncertainty help us to build resilience, foster social justice and deal with the big issues, such as climate change? Award-winning educator Michelle Lazarus shows us how uncertainty tolerance can help. From how teachers can prepare students for an uncertain workforce, to reducing burnout in trainee doctors, to confronting the effects of climate change, this smart, practical popular-science book has an affirming message: we may not be able to predict the future, but we can learn to navigate it. Drawing on Michelles original research, it will appeal to readers of Emily Ehlers Hope is a Verb and Jonica Newbys Beyond Climate Grief.
Undone science : social movements, mobilized publics, and industrial transitions by
A theoretical integration of science and technology studies and social movement studies that finds both common ground and "undone" research. As the fields of social movement studies (SMS) and science and technology studies (STS) have diversified in topical focus, they have moved closer to each other. SMS has turned toward the study of nonstate targets and institutionalized repertoires of action, just as STS has turned to expertise and publics. In Undone Science, David Hess argues that a theoretical integration of core concepts in the two fields is now possible, and he presents just such a synthesis. Hess focuses on industrial transition movements--mobilized counterpublics of activists, advocates, entrepreneurs, and other agents of change--and examines several areas of common ground between the two fields relevant to these movements. His account reveals the problem of "undone science"--areas of research potentially valuable to the goals of industrial transition movements that have been systematically ignored. Each chapter begins with a problem in SMS, discusses the relevant STS literature, describes new concepts and findings that have emerged, and offers applications to examples that range from nanotechnology and climate science denialism to conflicts based on race, class, and gender. Topics include the epistemic dimension of the political opportunity structure, networks of counterpublic knowledge, and regime resistance in industrial transition.
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